Public K-12 Graded Enrollment

California Public K-12 Graded Enrollment and High School Graduate Projections by County — 2026 Series

August 2026

• California Public K-12 Graded Enrollment Projections Table, 2026 Series
• DRU Data Hub – Enrollment Projections for Counties and Districts

Highlights

State Enrollment

California experienced the 9th consecutive decrease in total Public K-12 Enrollment in the 2025-26 school year (-75,000 students), enrolling 5,731,300 students. Over the next ten years, if current trends in fertility and migration hold, a further decline of 710,500 in total enrollment is projected, resulting in total enrollment of 5,020,800 by 2035-36.

County Enrollment

The largest increase in county enrollment across the projection period is expected in Placer County, which will gain 6,700 students between 2025-26 and 2035-36. The biggest decline in enrollment is expected in Los Angeles County, which will fall by 240,800 students by the end of the 10-year projection. Overall, six counties will have increased public K-12 enrollment by 2035-36.

High School Graduates

Graduates decreased slightly (-1,144 graduates) in 2024-25 to 453,600 and are projected to decline to 424,800 in 2026-27, holding around that level until 2029-30, before falling to 381,300 in 2035-36. The largest increase in graduates is expected in Sutter County, which will produce 331 more graduates by the end of the projection period. Overall, 10 counties will see an increase in the number of high school graduates by 2035-36.

Extended Projection

The 2026 Series includes an extended projection beyond the standard 10 years of data. Please note that these projections are a continuation of the Grade Progression Ratios used for the original projection, therefore they do not reflect any changes in assumptions after the initial 10-year period.

Data Sources

Enrollment data used to produce this report was obtained from the California Department of Education. Actual births were obtained from the California Department of Public Health while projected births were produced by the Demographic Research Unit.

Methodology

Enrollment projections are developed using a grade progression ratio (GPR), cohort-survival, projection model to project enrollment in transitional kindergarten through twelfth grade as well as high school graduates. The GPR is the result of dividing the enrollment in one grade level by the enrollment in one lower grade from the prior year. The GPR represents the proportion of students expected to progress from one grade to the next. The most likely progression model is chosen based upon analysis of historical trends and incorporating the migration trends and demographic characteristics of each county. Entering cohorts of transitional kindergartners, kindergarteners, and first graders are projected using actual and projected births. The best fitting progression ratios are chosen independently for the projection of each grade including high school graduates. The state total by grade is the result of the summation of the projections by grade at the county level.

User Notes

Changes to the kindergarten age of admission impact elementary enrollment patterns, making the 2026 series inconsistent with projections series produced prior to the 2010 series. The 2026 series feature transitional kindergarten as a separate grade, reflecting the change made by CDE starting with the 2023-24 enrollment dataset.

Suggested Citation

State of California, Department of Finance, California Public K-12 Graded Enrollment and High School Graduate Projections by County, 2026 Series. Sacramento, California, August 2026.