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California Public K–12 Graded Enrollment and High School Graduate Projections by County — 2012 Series
The Demographic Research Unit, California Department of Finance, prepares projections of California public K-12 graded enrollment and high school graduates by county.
Over the next ten years, enrollment in California will grow by 1.4 percent to reach 6,294,131. While this growth will result in an overall increase of more than 87,000 students between 2011-12 and 2021-22, it represents a decline from prior projections series.
Elementary enrollment is expected to increase 60,736 by 2021-22 to total 4,291,150. The 2012 birth projections series incorporates a perceived decline in births, contributing to lower elementary enrollment and reduced growth for future total enrollment.
Recent changes to kindergarten age of admission (see Chapter 705, Statutes of 2010 (SB1381)) impact elementary enrollment patterns making the 2012 projections inconsistent with projections series produced prior to the 2010 series. Kindergarten enrollment increases as some students qualify for a two-year kindergarten program.
Secondary enrollment is projected to decrease in the short term through 2014-15 followed by almost no change for two years and then moderate increases in the outer years of the projections series resulting in an overall increase of 26,331 by 2021-22.
From 2011-12 to 2021-22, enrollment is expected to increase in most counties with Riverside leading the state with an increase of over 86,000 additional students, followed by San Bernardino (over 35,000 additional students) and Kern (over 27,000 additional students). Other counties expected to experience large enrollment growth from 2011-12 levels are Fresno, Sacramento, and San Diego. Enrollment growth in these six counties can be attributed to increasing births or in-migration.
Los Angeles County contains the largest number of students statewide, but enrollment is projected to decline by 9 percent or about 145,000 students over the next 10 years due to continuing declines in birth cohorts and out-migration.
Enrollment data used to produce this report were provided by the Education Demographics Unit, California Department of Education (www.cde.ca.gov), and are current as of September 2012. Actual births were provided by the California Department of Public Health (www.cdph.ca.gov) while projected births were produced by the Demographic Research Unit.
Enrollment projections are developed using a grade progression ratio (GPR), cohort-survival, projection model to project enrollment in kindergarten through twelfth grade and high school graduates. The GPR is the result of dividing the enrollment in one grade level by the enrollment in one lower grade from the prior year. The GPR represents the proportion of students expected to progress from one grade to the next. The most likely progression model is chosen based upon analysis of historical trends and knowledge of migration trends and demographic characteristics of each county. Entering cohorts of kindergarteners and first graders are projected using actual and projected births. The best fitting progression ratios are chosen independently for the projection of each grade including high school graduates. The state total by grade is the result of the summation of the projections by grade at the county level.
Actual enrollment and high school graduates may not match prior years' series due to revisions to the California Department of Education enrollment files. Enrollment projections exclude California Education Authority and state special schools, in addition to reported ungraded students.
Several important changes have occurred regarding the enrollment data used to develop the projections. In October 2006, the collection of enrollment data was shifted from school-level aggregate obtained through the California Basic Educational Data System (CBEDS) to student-level derived from the Annual Statewide Student Identifier (SSID) Maintenance. This required that each student be assigned an identifier based on California School Information Services (CSIS) and local educational agency (LEA) coding system criteria. Therefore, aggregate enrollment data previously obtained through the CBEDS was discontinued.
The implementation of the Annual SSID Maintenance process resulted in changes to student reporting. Most students previously reported as ungraded in the aggregated K-12 enrollment data were allocated to individual grades through SSID and CSIS. This change makes graded enrollment, after 2005, inconsistent with graded enrollment for prior years.
Enrollment data for the 2009-10, 2010-11, and 2011-12 school years were collected using the California Longitudinal Pupil Achievement Data System (CALPADS). The 2009-10, 2010-11, and 2011-12 enrollment data are incomplete, as a few local educational agencies were unable to certify their enrollment data. A list of these local education agencies is included in the projection tables.
Evaon Schnagl and Alexander Alvarado prepared this report under the general direction of Bill Schooling, Chief, Demographic Research Unit. John Malson and Judi McClellan provided technical direction and review. Projected births by county were produced by Walter Schwarm.
State of California, Department of Finance, California Public K-12 Graded Enrollment and High School Graduate Projections by County, 2012 Series. Sacramento, California, November 2012.