Department of Finance
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Sacramento, CA 95814

Historical and Projected State and County Births, 1970-2021, with Actual and Projected Fertility Rates by Mother's Age and Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2021

October 2012

• State and County Birth Projections, 2012 Series (.xls, <1MB)

INTRODUCTION

This report presents actual calendar year 1970-2011 births and projected 2012-2021 births for California and its 58 counties.  The report also includes births by mother’s age group and race/ethnicity for the state, 2000-2021.  These annually updated projections are used in the Department of Finance's kindergarten through twelfth grade public school enrollment projections.

State Overview

Although the number of state births are expected to increase each year over the ten-year projection period compared to the current (2011) level of births, the total fertility rate (TFR) of the California female population is projected to continue to gradually decrease through 2013.  The state’s TFR drops to 1.88 in 2012 from 1.91 in 2011 and is then projected to recover over the rest of the decade to 1.93 by 2021.

While California women’s fertility rates are anticipated to be lower in the next few years, continued differences in the number of births and the fertility rates among race/ethnic groups, especially at younger ages, will be evident.  In general, births to women 30 and older will continue to increase, while births to younger women are projected to continue to decline.

Data

Sources: The California Department of Public Health, Center for Health Statistics provided calendar year birth data for 1970-2011.

Denominators for race/ethnic rates were derived from the distributions of female populations aged 15-44 by race/ethnicity from the Census 2010 MR file then estimated to a July series using an intercensal population change rate. These July 2010 population numbers were then projected to 2021, controlling total population to 2015 and 2020 values from the 2012 Interim Projections.  Three years of births by county were used to derive initial 2012 county birth proportions. 2020 county birth proportions from the Baseline06 population projections published by the Demographic Research Unit in July 2007 were partially used to adjust those current county birth proportions to 2021.  Both sets of proportions were used in a year-to-year change model carried through to 2021 to apportion the yearly projected statewide births.

Rounding: Independent rounding may prevent the sum of selected data components from exactly matching the total.

Variables:

Births, as referred to here, are unduplicated live birth counts occurring within the state of California (This excludes ~1800 births to CA residents outside the state). In this report, ethnicity refers exclusively to those of Hispanic or Latino Origin. No other ethnic groups are identified in the report.

Race as used here is a classification variable with 6 categories as defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget for the display of government data. As defined for use on California birth certificates, in the US Census as well as in other government documents, these official categories are: (1) American Indian/Alaska Native; (2) Asian; (3) Black; (4) Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander; (5) White; and (6) More than one race. In this report, terms used for these groups are American Indian; Asian; Black; Pacific Islander; White; and Multirace.

Age is defined as mother's age as reported on live birth certificates and assumed to be age at last birthday. Ages are processed in total years and, for analysis purposes, are put into 5-year age groups for ages 15-44. Mothers older or younger than the limits of this range are put into the oldest or youngest 5-year age group within the range. Reported race of mother is used to classify births. No adjustments to the data have been made to account for any data anomalies which may result from differences in the use of race categories by respondents when reporting races of mothers and children on birth certificates.

Measures: The fertility rates presented here and defined below are calculated as the number of events per 1,000 population or subpopulation that have occurred or will occur to California residents and its counties during given years. In this report we have calculated the period (in this case, annual) measures.

Age-Specific Fertility Rate:   (ASFR)	Number of live births to women in a given 5-yr age group	X   1,000
	Estimated female population in that 5-yr age group
Total Fertility Rate: (TFR)	Sum of each ASFR multiplied by 5, result divided by 1,000 (This is the average number of children per woman the current group of mothers would bear if they had children at the given age-specific rates over their entire reproductive lives.)
General Fertility Rate:  (GFR)	Number of live births	X   1,000
	Estimated female population aged 15-44

Methodology

Age-specific, general and total period fertility rates were developed for 2000-2011 using California birth data.  From these historical rates, trends were derived for six age groups and seven race/ethnic groups of mothers.  In general, recent fertility trends were used for the earlier years of the projection period, with longer term trends projected for the latter years of the period.  Resulting fertility rates were then applied to separately projected female population. Statewide births were allocated to counties based on each county’s current and projected share of births.

Acknowledgments

This report was prepared by Walter Schwarm under the general direction of Bill Schooling, Chief, Demographic Research Unit.

Suggested Citation

State of California, Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit.  Historical and Projected State and County Births, 1970-2021, with Actual and Projected Fertility Rates by Mother’s Age and Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2021.  Sacramento, California: October 2012.