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Historical and Projected State and County Births, 1980-2020, with Actual and Projected Fertility Rates by Mother's Age and Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2020

October 2011

• County Birth Projections, 2011 Series (.xls, <1MB)

INTRODUCTION

This report presents actual calendar year 1980-2010 births and projected 2010-2020 births for California and its 58 counties.  The report also includes births by mother’s age group and race/ethnicity for the state, 2000-2020.  These annually updated projections are used in the Department of Finance's (DOF's) kindergarten through twelfth grade public school enrollment projections.

Highlights

Actual 2010 births (509,979) reflect a notable decline (16,795) from their 2009 value (526,774). This drop is 70 percent smaller than the substantial drop that occurred the previous year and the third largest drop since 1990. The current series projects gains over the next decade averaging about 6,090 a year.  During the next decade, the state's total number of annual births is projected to increase by 60,900 (11.9 percent) from the 2010 level, to over 570,800 by 2020. California’s total fertility rate (TFR) continues below replacement level (2.1) and fell below 2 this year.  (The TFR represents the average number of children that each woman would have during her reproductive life if she bore children at the currently observed age-based fertility rates.)

Because this projection series is based on a new benchmark from Census 2010, several noteworthy patterns have appeared in addition to those that have continued since the last series was published.  First, the TFRs of six race/ethnic groups (American Indians, Asians, Blacks, Hispanics, Multirace persons, and Pacific Islanders) dropped between 2009 and 2010, with only Hispanics retaining a TFR above replacement level.  Second, though Hispanic annual births will increase about 51,000 by 2020, the group’s TFR will decrease to 2.12 from a revised decade high of 2.77.  There was also a substantial Hispanic TFR drop last year (to a revised 2.43 in 2009 from a revised 2.63 in 2008). Third, although American Indian births will continue to grow, their annual increase will be especially small, and the group’s TFR will continue a slow decline to the lowest level, 1.59, of any race/ethnic group by 2020.

State Overview

Although the number of state births are expected to increase each year over the ten-year projection period compared to the current (2010) level of births, the TFR of the California female population is projected to continue to gradually decrease through 2020.  The state’s TFR, with a drop to 1.94 in 2010 from 2.02 in 2009, is projected to continue its downward trend, to 1.89 by 2020.

Age and Race/Ethnicity

While California women’s fertility rates are anticipated to be lower in the next few years, continued differences in the number of births and the fertility rates among race/ethnic groups, especially at younger ages, will be evident.  In general, while births to women 30 and older will continue to increase, births to younger women are projected to continue to decline.

Substantial 2010 age-specific changes in births compared to 2009 have had a noteworthy impact on fertility trends.  The percentage decreases in births from 2009 to 2010 range from a decline of 0.1 percent for those aged 30-34 to a decline of 9.9 percent for those aged 15-19, with percentage drops for the three other age groups under age 40 between these values.  Only those aged 40-44 had a 0.6 percent increase in births. 

Over the 10-year projection period, births are expected to decline for women under age 25.  The drop will be smaller for women aged 20-24 (down 4.8 percent) than for those 15-19 (down 19.9 percent).  There will be a substantial 28.4 percent increase in births to women 30-34, outpacing the roughly 9-to-19.4 percent increases to be experienced by remaining age cohorts.  

In terms of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs), those for women aged 15-19 will drop about 18 percent by the end of the projection period, with slight annual fluctuations from year to year.  The decline in ASFR for women aged 20-24 will be a consistent and more sizable drop, going from 81.1 in 2010 to about 70 by 2020. For women aged 25-29, this rate is expected to drop also, although at a smaller percentage than for those aged 20-24. Unlike rates for the younger age groups, the ASFRs of women aged 30 and over are anticipated to increase over the projection period.  Though the rate change over the period will be larger for those 30-34 than for the older groups, the larger percentage increase in rate will be experienced by those aged 40-44, whose ASFR will increase 13.5 percent.

The ten-year change in annual births will be positive for five of the seven race/ethnic groups of women, although these gains, as well as TFR changes, will vary markedly by race/ethnicity. The increases in births over the decade will range from a 2.7-percent gain for Pacific Islander women (to an annual level of 2,292 from 2,231 in 2010) to a 56.5-percent increase for Multirace women (to an annual level of 15,813 in 2020 from 10,104 in 2010).  The percent change for Hispanics, at 20.8 percent, will also be substantial (from 257,269 to 310,890 in 2020).  The change for Whites (to an annual level of 144,040 in 2020 from 150,398 in 2010) will be 4.2-percent drop.  The annual birth change for American Indians will be 13 percent (growing from 1,912 in 2010 to 2,160 in 2020), and, for Asians, 13.4 percent (going from 60,437 in 2010 to 68,534 in 2020). Lastly, among Blacks, births are expected to decline by 1.7 percent, representing an annual drop of about 500. 

Despite the birth gains, American Indians’ TFR will drop from 1.73 to 1.59.  TFRs will also decline for Blacks (from 1.79 in 2010 to 1.72 in 2020), and for Hispanics (from 2.27 in 2010 to 2.12 in 2020), while Pacific Islanders’ TFR is expected to drop slightly over the ten years—from 2.09 in 2010 to 1.96 in 2020.  Finally, the TFR for Whites will go from 1.71 in 2010 to 1.65 in 2020.  Two groups are expected to show gains.  Asians’ TFR will increase from 1.59 in 2010 to 1.60 in 2020. The only notable rate gain will be observed for Multirace women: their TFR will grow from 1.55 in 2010 to 1.67 in 2020, an increase of 7.7 percent.

When both age of mothers and their race/ethnicity are taken into account, a more complex picture of future fertility shifts emerges compared to the recent past than would be implied by the state-level shift to increasing births among women of older ages and declines at younger ages. The many different specifics of these patterns are best examined separately for each race/ethnic group in Tables 4B through 4H.

Counties

Over the ten-year period, positive numerical and percentage annual increases in births are projected for 50 of the state’s 58 counties. The seven counties with projected drops in births are Humboldt (42 fewer births, 2.7 % drop), Alameda (241 fewer births, 1.2 percent drop), San Mateo (478 drop in annual births, 5.2 percent decrease), San Francisco (2,029 fewer births, drop of 23.1 percent), Lake (17 fewer births, 2.4 percent drop), Mariposa (13 fewer births, 8.7 percent drop) and Tuolumne (23 fewer births, a 4.7 percent drop).

The highest numerical period increase is almost 19,000 for Los Angeles County (to total about 152,000 annual births). The second- and third-ranked numeric gainers will be Riverside County, adding about 6,900 (to total 37,500 annual births by 2020), and San Joaquin County, gaining about 3,800 births (to total 14,370 by 2020).  Alpine births will not increase. Of California’s 47 other counties, 16 (about 34 percent) will be adding fewer than 100 births to their annual totals by 2020.  Another 18 counties (about 38 percent) are projected to gain 100-880 births, while 13 of the 47 counties (about 28 percent) will be adding between about 1,200 and about 3,000 births to their annual totals by 2020.

Percentage gains projected over the same time frame show of the 50 counties with growth in annual births, 13 (26 %) will have gains of less than 10 percent, another 20 (40%) will have increased births of between 10 and 20 percent, and 11 (24 %) will go up in births by 20-35 percent.  The remaining six counties (12%) will experience an annual increase in births by roughly 36-46 percent.  The six counties include Placer County (about 44 percent annual birth growth, to total 5,496 births in 2020); Mono County (42 percent growth, to a 2020 total of 214); Sutter County (46 percent growth, to 1,981 in 2020); San Benito County (37.1 percent increase to total 1,008 in 2020); Marin County (37 percent increase, to 3,249 in 2020); and San Joaquin County (to a 2020 total of 14,370, a 35.7 percent rate of growth).

Data

Sources: The California Department of Public Health, Center for Health Statistics provided calendar year birth data for 1990-2010.

Denominators for race/ethnic rates were derived from the distributions of female populations aged 15-44 by race/ethnicity from the Census 2000 MR file interpolated to Census 2010 figures, then estimated to a July series using an intercensal population change rate. These July 2010 numbers were then projected to 2020.  County proportionate distributions of projected births from the Baseline06 birth projections published by the Demographic Research Unit in July 2007 were used to adjust current county birth proportions.  Both sets of proportions were used in a year-to-year change model carried through to 2020.  These preliminary county births were then recontrolled to state projected values for 2011-2020 to produce final county births for the series.

Rounding: Independent rounding may prevent the sum of selected data components from exactly matching the total.

Terms: Births, as referred to here, are unduplicated live birth counts. In this report, ethnicity refers to Hispanic or Latino Origin and is indicated by the term, Hispanic. No other ethnic groups are identified in the report. Race as used here is a classification variable with 6 categories as defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget for the display of government data. As defined for use on California birth certificates, in the US Census as well as in other government documents, these official categories are: (1) American Indian/Alaska Native; (2) Asian; (3) Black; (4) Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander; (5) White; and (6) More than one race. In this report, terms used for these groups are American Indian; Asian; Black; Pacific Islander; White; and Multirace. Age is defined as mother's age as reported on live birth certificates and assumed to be age at last birthday. Ages are processed in total years and, for analysis purposes, are put into 5-year age groups for ages 15-44. Mothers older or younger than the limits of this range are put into the oldest or youngest 5-year age group within the range. Reported race of mother is used to classify births. No adjustments to the data have been made to account for any data anomalies which may result from differences in the use of race categories by respondents when reporting races of mothers and children on birth certificates.

Measures: The fertility rates presented here and defined below are calculated as the number of events per 1,000 population or subpopulation that have occurred or will occur to California residents and its counties during given years. In this report we have calculated the period (in this case, annual) measures.

Age-Specific Fertility Rate:   (ASFR)	Number of live births to women in a given 5-yr age group	X   1,000
	Estimated female population in that 5-yr age group
Total Fertility Rate: (TFR)	Sum of each ASFR multiplied by 5, result divided by 1,000 (This is the average number of children per woman the current group of mothers would bear if they had children at the given age-specific rates over their entire reproductive lives.)
General Fertility Rate:  (GFR)	Number of live births	X   1,000
	Estimated female population aged 15-44

Methodology

Age-specific, general and total period fertility rates were developed for 2000-2010 using California birth data.  From these historical rates, trends were derived for six age groups and seven race/ethnic groups of mothers.  In general, recent fertility trends were used for the earlier years of the projection period, with longer term trends projected for the latter years of the period.  Resulting fertility rates were then applied to separately projected female population.  Births and related changes produced from this process were assessed for reasonableness.  Statewide births were allocated to counties based on each county’s current and projected share of births.

Acknowledgments

This report was prepared by Melanie Martindale under the general direction of John Malson, Acting Chief, Demographic Research Unit.  Evaon Schnagl provided technical support.  

Suggested Citation

State of California, Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit.  Historical and Projected State and County Births, 1980-2020, with Actual and Projected Fertility Rates by Mother’s Age and Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2020.  Sacramento, California: October 2011.