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Report P-1: Summary Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity and by Major Age Groups
- Report P-1 (County): State and County Total Population Projections, 2010-2060 (5-year increments)
P-1 (Age): State and County Population Projections by Major Age
Groups, 2010-2060 (by decade)
- Report P-1 (Race): State and County Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, 2010-2060 (by decade)
These data are projections of future population by race/ethnicity, age, and sex for California and its counties. These summary reports contain data from the State and County Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, Age, and Sex, July 1, 2010-2060.
See the Population Projections page for additional reports with greater detail for age, gender, race/ethnicity, and projection year.
Race/Ethnicity categories: Race and Hispanic groups in these reports are:
Not Hispanic or Latino
Hispanic or Latino
- American Indian
- Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander
- Two or more races
- Preschool Age: (0-4 years)
- School Age: (5-17 years)
- College Age: (18-24 years)
- Working Age: (25-64 years)
- Young Retirees: (65-74 years)
- Mature Retirees: (75-84 years)
- Seniors: (85 or more years)
The Department of Finance uses a baseline cohort-component method to project population by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. A baseline projection assumes people have the right to migrate where they choose and no major natural catastrophes or war will befall the state or the nation. A cohort-component method traces people born in a given year through their lives. As each year passes, cohorts change due to the mortality and migration assumptions. Applying the fertility assumptions to the women of childbearing age forms new cohorts.
methodology and assumptions
See the methodology statement (.pdf, <1 MB) for information on the process for developing the projections, the data sources, and assumptions regarding migration, fertility rates, and survival rates.
These population projections were prepared under the mandate of Government Code, Sections 13073 and 13073.5. In addition, the State Administrative Manual, Section 1100 on state plans, sets the general policy of . . . "(3) The use of the same population projections and demographic data that is provided by the State’s Demographic Research Unit.”
Walter Schwarm prepared this population projection series. Karen Duong provided assistance with model validation and testing. Bill Schooling, Chief and John Malson, Assistant Chief provided consultation.
State of California, Department of Finance, Report P-1 (Total Population): State and County Population Projections, 2010-2060. Sacramento, California, December 2014.
State of California, Department of Finance, Report P-1 (Age): State and County Population Projections by Major Age Groups, 2010-2060. Sacramento, California, December 2014.
State of California, Department of Finance, Report P-1 (Race): State and County Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, 2010-2060. Sacramento, California, December 2014.
- Historical Population by Race/Hispanics, Age, and Gender
- Estimates of Current and Historical Population
For further information, please e-mail email@example.com.