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Report P-1: Summary Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity and by Major Age Groups

January 2013

Contents

These data are projections of future population by race/ethnicity, age, and gender for California and its counties. These summary reports contain data from the State and County Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, Age, and Gender, July 1, 2010-2060.

See the Population Projections page for additional reports with greater detail for age, gender, race/ethnicity, and projection year.

Race/Ethnicity categories: Race and Hispanic groups in these reports are:

White, not Hispanic or Latino
Black, not Hispanic or Latino
American Indian, not Hispanic or Latino
Asian, not Hispanic or Latino
Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander, not Hispanic or Latino
Two or more races, not Hispanic or Latino
Hispanic or Latino

Highlights

By 2060, California will have 13 counties of one million or more, with eight of those with two million or more residents. Six of the counties with at least one million will be inland counties. The four new counties reaching one million will be Fresno, Kern, San Joaquin, and Ventura. The latest projection series indicate that early in 2014, the Hispanic population will become the plurality in California for the first time since California became a state.  By 2060, both the Black and the White populations will have increased in size, but decreased in proportion to the total population. Hispanics will comprise nearly half (48 percent) of all Californians. Asians will also grow significantly in population, but only marginally relative to the total population to just over 13 percent from their current level of just under 13 percent. The non-Hispanic White population will decline to 30 percent from the current 39 percent and the Black population from 6 percent to 4 percent.

Southern California will lead the State’s growth over the next 48 years (2012 to 2060), growing by 8 million to a total population of 31 million. Riverside County will have the largest growth (nearly 2 million) of any county in the state and become the second most populated county in the state at 4.2 million, trailing only Los Angeles at 11.6 million. The San Joaquin Valley will nearly double, adding 3 million new Californians, increasing from 3.2 million to 6.2 million. Rural California counties will tend to have an increasingly aging population and tend to grow at a slower pace than the rest of the state.

methodology and assumptions

See the methodology statement for information on the process for developing the projections, the data sources, and assumptions regarding migration, fertility rates, and survival rates.

Authority

These population projections were prepared under the mandate of Government Code, Sections 13073 and 13073.5. In addition, the State Administrative Manual, Section 1100 on state plans, sets the general policy of . . . "(3) The use of the same population projections and demographic data that is provided by the State’s Demographic Research Unit.”

Acknowledgments

Walter Schwarm prepared this population projection series. Evaon Schnagl assisted with model validation and testing. Nancy Gemignani assisted with production and report generation. Bill Schooling, Chief, and John Malson, Assistant Chief, provided consultation.

Suggested Citations

State of California, Department of Finance, Report P-1 (County): State and County Total Population Projections, 2010-2060. Sacramento, California, January 2013.

State of California, Department of Finance, Report P-1 (Age): State and County Population Projections by Major Age Groups, 2010-2060. Sacramento, California, January 2013.

State of California, Department of Finance, Report P-1 (Race): State and County Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, 2010-2060. Sacramento, California, January 2013.

Additional resources

For further information, please e-mail ficalpop@dof.ca.gov.