Department of Finance
915 L Street
Sacramento, CA 95814
 

E-5 City / County Population and Housing Estimates, 2008, Revised 2001-2007, with 2000 Benchmark

May 2008

Acknowledgments

Daniel Sheya prepared this report.  Daniel Sheya prepared the city estimates, Linda Gage prepared the state and county estimates, Doug Kuczynski and Walter Schwarm provided analytical expertise in city estimates while producing military, group quarters, household population and housing estimates. Evaon Schnagl provided analytical expertise for state and county estimates. Mary Heim, Chief of the Demographic Research Unit; William Schooling, Assistant Chief of the Demographic Research Unit; and John Malson, Research Manager over the city estimates unit provided general direction.

Suggested Citation

State of California, Department of Finance, E-5 Population and Housing Estimates for Cities, Counties and the State, 2001-2008, with 2000 Benchmark. Sacramento, California, May 2008.

• E-5 Population and Housing Estimates, for Cities, Counties, and the State, 2001–2008, with 2000 Benchmark (.xls,1.1MB)

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Contents

This report provides population and housing estimates for January 1, 2001 through January 1, 2007 and provisional population and housing estimates for January 1, 2008 for the state, counties and cities. The population estimates benchmark for April 1, 2000 is also provided.

Highlights

Housing unit growth within most California cities is down considerably from the previous year with only four cities having more than 10 percent growth compared to 14 last year. The top ten growing cities this year averaged 10.7 percent growth in housing units compared to 15.1 percent for the previous year.

The average housing unit growth within California is 1.2 percent this year. This compares with a 1.7 percent growth rate in housing units last year.

Cities with significant housing unit and population growth include San Joaquin in Fresno County, California City in Kern County, and Beaumont in Riverside County. The city of Beaumont is the only city to have housing unit growth over 10 percent both this year and last.

The cities of Fontana in San Bernardino and Chico in Butte led the state in annexations last year with 1063 and 632 housing units respectively. Overall annexation activity for California cities has tapered off dramatically this past year with only 3,082 housing units being annexed statewide, versus 14,886 in 2006.

San Jose, in Santa Clara County, the third largest city in California, is closing in on the one million population mark with an estimated 989,496 inhabitants on January 1, 2008. The city added 2,915 housing units and 17,306 additional residents since January 1, 2007.

Since the April 1, 2000 census, the top four fastest growing California cities all have more than doubled in size, including Lincoln in Placer County (255 percent), Beaumont and Murrieta in Riverside County (177 and 126 percent respectively), and Brentwood in Contra Costa County (117 percent).

Methodology

Introduction. The January state, county, and city populations are independently estimated using change models benchmarked to base year 2000 that corrects for census omissions and geocoding errors. The state population estimate is produced using the Driver License Address Change (DLAC) method. County population proportions result from the average of three separately estimated sets of proportions, as described below. The final distribution of county proportions is applied to the independently estimated state total to derive the county estimates. The city estimates, produced using the Housing Unit Method (HUM) detailed below, are raked to be consistent with the state and county estimates. Through the raking process, city and unincorporated area estimates are aligned with the more robust state and county estimating models that employ multiple data sets available only at the higher geographic levels.

City and Unincorporated Area Estimates. The HUM estimates total and occupied housing units, household size, household population, and group quarters population. Housing units are estimated by adding new construction and annexations, and subtracting demolitions and conversions from the 2000 benchmark or a prior year’s estimate. Housing unit changes are supplied by local jurisdictions and the U.S. Census Bureau. Of the 535 reporting jurisdictions, 530 provided data and 5 did not respond. Occupied housing units (households) are estimated by applying a derived civilian vacancy rate, based on 2000 benchmark data, to the estimated civilian housing units. Adjustments to the census occupancy rates (occupied units/total units) are occasionally made, however, foreclosures and other housing market indicators were not used to adjust vacancy rates. Occupied military units are added to civilian occupied units to calculate total households. Military surveys are used to track military changes, including base realignments and closures. The household population estimate is derived by multiplying the number of households by the current persons per household. The persons per household estimates are based on 2000 benchmark data and are updated by incorporating the current county population series into these estimates. Persons per household can be further changed when a jurisdiction adds large numbers of special types of housing, such as adult living. The benchmark group quarters population is updated using the reported population change in group quarters facilities. The household and group quarters populations are summed to produce the initial city population estimates. These estimates are aligned to the county estimates described below.

County Estimates. County population proportions result from averaging three methods.

Driver License Address Change Method. A modified version of the State DLAC method is used for counties. County proportions of the State total result from changes in county population values for births, deaths, school enrollment, foreign and domestic migration, medical care data for the population over 65, and group quarters population.

Ratio-Correlation Method. This method models change in household population as a function of changes in the distributions of driver licenses, school enrollments, housing units, and deaths. Estimates of county group quarters are added.

Tax Return Method. County proportions are derived by the U.S. Census Bureau using matched federal income tax returns to estimate inter-county migration along with vital statistics, group quarters, and other information for the population aged 65 and over.

State Estimate. The state population is estimated using the DLAC method. This composite method separately estimates the population under age 18, 18 through 64, and 65 years and older. Administrative records such as births, deaths, driver license address changes, tax return data, medical care data for the population over 65, immigration, elementary school enrollments, and group quarters population are among the data used in this method. All data are in summary tables and do not reveal the identity of any individual.

Data Considerations

Sources. Data used in estimation models come from administrative records of several state and federal government departments and agencies, as well as numerous local jurisdictions. Since timeliness and coverage in these series vary, corrections, smoothing, and other adjustments may be applied.

Accuracy. Data and models used to produce population estimates are subject to measurement and non-measurement errors. The data and estimating models were thoroughly tested with decennial census results that provide benchmarks for the estimates series. The total state estimate was within one-half of one percent (0.5 percent) of the 2000 census count; county estimates varied by an average of 1.9 percent, and city estimates by an average of 5.6 percent. Data and methods are further refined and modified throughout the decade.

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