Finance Bulletin

October 2001

Economic Update

The latest available economic data for California do not reflect conditions after the September 11, 2001 attacks.  Thus, their usefulness for discerning the state’s current economic condition is limited.  Although too little time has elapsed to accurately appraise the attacks’ impact on the state generally, it is reasonable to assume that the indicators discussed below may paint a more optimistic picture than exists now.  However, while the full impact of the September 11 attacks and subsequent events is only now beginning to emerge, there are reasons to believe that California will be less severely affected than the nation as a whole.

Likewise, labor market figures for September reflect employment status at anytime during the second week of the month, including September 10, the day preceding the attacks.

Monthly Cash Report

Preliminary General Fund agency cash for September was $468 million below the 2001 Budget Act forecast of $7.451 billion.  At this time, it does not appear that any significant amount of this month’s shortfall was attributable to the September 11 terrorist attacks.  If a reduction in taxable sales occurred as a result of those attacks, it will be reflected in the sales tax receipts due at the end of October.  Any other effects on revenues, due to such things as the fall in the stock market or employment losses, may not be apparent for some time.  Year-to-date, revenues are $608 million below expectations.

General Fund Agency Cash
2001-02  Budget Act Forecast

2001-02 Comparison of Actual and  Forecast 
Agency General Fund Revenues

For more information, please contact the California Department of Finance,
Room 1145, State Capitol, Sacramento, CA or call (916) 323-0648.

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