Nonfarm
payroll employment fell by 14,400 in November. It appears
that that decline was caused almost entirely by the grocery
strike in Southern California. When the effects of the
strike were netted out, (which is the appropriate way to look at
the numbers), there was essentially no change in nonfarm payroll
employment in November. The nation gained 57,000 jobs in
November, and the national unemployment rate was 5.9 percent.
Five
major industries gained jobs in November. Construction
added 4,300 jobs; Information Services added 3,100; Private
Education and Health Services, 500; Financial Activity, 300; and
Other Services, 200. Six major sectors lost jobs: Trade,
Transportation, and Utilities, 14,100; Professional and Business
Services, 5,500; Manufacturing, 1,500; Leisure and Hospitality,
800; Government, 500; and Resources and Mining, 400. The
decline in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities was almost
entirely due to the loss of grocery jobs from the strike.
Over
the year, California nonfarm employment fell by 55,800, or 0.4
percent. Employment fell by 40,900 in Government; 36,200
in Manufacturing; 22,600 in Professional and Business Services;
15,400 in Information; 3,300 in Other Services; 700 in Trade,
Transportation, and Utilities; and 500 in Resources and
Mining. Employment over the year rose by 23,000 in Leisure
and Hospitality, 17,900 in Educational and Health Services,
15,900 in Construction, and 7,000 in Financial Activity.
Residential
construction in California, as measured by permit issuances,
reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 207,000 units in
October, a 7.5 percent increase from the previous month.
This was the second busiest homebuilding month since early
1990.
California
residential construction began 2003 with an extraordinary burst
of activity, with permit issuances during the first three months
of the year up nearly 38 percent from the same months of
2002. After this surge, residential construction settled
into a healthy pace, averaging a seasonally adjusted annual rate
192,000 units from March through October, 14 percent higher than
the 2002 pace.
A
significant transition has taken place in regional homebuilding
patterns. Throughout the short 2001 recession and during
2002, Southern California dominated the state’s new home
building. During 2003, however, in terms of the growth
rate of new home construction, the San Francisco Bay Area has
led the pack, with home building rising nearly 38 percent during
the first 10 months of 2003 compared with the same months of
2002. This is a welcome turnaround from the 7 percent
drop in 2002. During the first 10 months of 2003, home
building in Southern California rose 13 percent.
In
contrast to residential construction, commercial construction
has weakened as 2003 progressed. In October,
nonresidential construction continued a seesaw pattern by
falling from September, which had recovered some of August’s
substantial drop. Nonresidential construction activity, as
measured by the value of permits issued, during the first 10
months of 2003 was off 3.3 percent from the same months of
2002. Continued reductions in office construction and
weaker hotel and motel construction were chiefly responsible for
the overall slowdown.
Sales
of existing homes firmed up slightly in October, following a
drop in September. Home sales reached 636,690 units on a
seasonally adjusted-annual rate basis, a 9.9 percent rise from a
year ago. During the first 10 months of 2003, the pace of
existing home sales was 4.3 percent stronger than the same
months of 2002.
Bay Area Homebuilding Turns Around
Monthly Cash Report
Preliminary
General Fund agency cash for November was $290 million above the 2003 Budget Act
forecast of $4.285 billion. Year-to-date, revenues are $1.018 billion
above expectations.
Personal
income tax revenues were $49 million below the month’s
forecast of $1.939 billion. Withholding was
$168 million below the estimate of $2.048 billion but still
5.1 percent above the year-ago level. Offsetting the loss
to a large extent were other receipts, which came in
$40 million higher than the forecast of $228 million, and
refunds, which were $79 million below the projected level of
$337 million. Year-to-date collections are $480
million above forecast.
Sales
and use tax receipts were $17 million below the month’s
forecast of $2.109 billion. November cash includes the
final payment for third quarter sales, as well as the first
prepayment for fourth quarter sales. Through November, the
sales tax is $92 million above expectations.
Corporation
tax revenues were $125 million above the month’s forecast
of -$60 million. Prepayments and other payments were
$35 million and $41 million below the estimates of $109
million and $106 million, respectively.
The combined shortfall of $76 million from prepayments and other
payments, however, was more than offset by the
lower-than-expected refunds, which were $201 million below the
projected level of $275 million. To date, this tax is
up $134 million from forecast.
General Fund Agency Cash
2003-04 Governor's Budget Act Forecast
2003-04 Comparison of Actual and Forecast
Agency General Fund Revenues
For more information, please contact the
California Department of Finance,
Room 1145, State Capitol, Sacramento, CA or call (916) 323-0648.
