August and September yielded
mixed signals for California's economy. The unemployment rate dropped to its
lowest point of the year in September. Industry employment, however, slid. Home
building slowed slightly in August, but is still much stronger than last year.
Home sales and prices both continued to improve substantially. Nonresidential
construction, on the other hand, was still weak.
Home Prices Continue to Climb
Monthly Cash Report
Preliminary General Fund agency cash for September was $2.543 billion above the 2003 Budget Act forecast of $7.263 billion. However, $2.264 billion is due to tobacco bond moneys that were received in late September, rather than in October, thereby increasing the "other revenues" category. Excluding the "other revenues" category, agency cash is $369 million above forecast for the month and $514 million above forecast year-to-date. The forecast assumed $2 billion in tobacco bond revenues in 2003-04 and because $2.264 billion was received, there is a one-time real gain from forecast of $264 million for this revenue source.
income tax revenues were $292 million above the month's forecast of $3.423
billion. Quarterly estimated payments were $154 million above the forecast
of $1.417 billion, although the $1.571 billion received was very similar
to the year-ago level of $1.581 billion. Withholding was $87 million above
the projected level of $1.944 billion and 13 percent above the year-ago
level. Other receipts were $75 million above the estimate of $188 million.
Refunds were $24 million greater than the expected level of $126 million.
For July through September, this tax is $494 million above forecast.
and use tax receipts were $13 million above the month's forecast of $1.852
billion. September represents the second prepayment for third quarter taxable
sales. Final payments for this quarter will be received in late October
and early November, providing a more complete picture of third quarter activity.
So far this year, the sales tax is $42 million above expectations.
tax revenues were $79 million above the month's forecast of $1.253 billion.
Prepayments were $121 million above the forecast of $1.11 billion and miscellaneous
payments were $83 million lower than the $235 million that was expected.
The third prepayment for calendar year corporations, as well as estimated
payments for fiscal year corporations, was due in September. Refunds were
$41 million less than the forecast of $92 million. Year-to-date, this tax
is up $46 million from forecast.
from the insurance, estate, alcoholic beverage, and tobacco taxes came in
$15 million below the $524 million that was expected. The remaining revenues-pooled
money interest income and "other" revenues-were $2.174 billion
above the month's estimate of $211 million. This is because $2.264 billion
in tobacco bond moneys were received earlier than expected.
General Fund Agency Cash
2003-04 Governor's Budget Act Forecast
2003-04 Comparison of Actual and Forecast
Agency General Fund Revenues
For more information, please contact the
California Department of Finance,
Room 1145, State Capitol, Sacramento, CA or call (916) 323-0648.
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