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California Public K-12 Graded Enrollment and High School Graduate Projections by County — 2007 Series
October 2007
Acknowledgments
Evaon Schnagl and Walter Schwarm prepared this report under the general direction of Mary Heim, Chief, Demographic Research Unit. Bill Schooling, Assistant Chief, John Malson, and Linda Von Rotz provided technical direction, data processing, and review.
Data used to produce this report were provided by the Education Demographics Unit, California Department of Education and
are current as of September 2007.
Suggested Citation
State of California, Department of Finance, California Public K-12 Enrollment and High School Graduate Projections by County, 2007 Series. Sacramento, California. October 2007
Contents
The Demographic Research Unit, California Department of Finance, prepares projections of total public graded kindergarten through grade 12 enrollment and high school graduates by county, for use by those studying issues related to K‑12 and postsecondary education.
Enrollment projections are developed using a cohort survival projection technique. The grade progression ratio (GPR) is the result of dividing the enrollment in one grade level by the enrollment in one lower grade from the prior year. The GPR represents the proportion of students expected to progress from one grade to the next. The most likely progression model is chosen based upon analysis of historical trends, knowledge of migration trends and demographic characteristics of each county including the most recent population estimates, and survey results from selected school districts. Entering cohorts of kindergarteners and first graders are projected using actual and projected births. The best fitting progression ratios are chosen independently for the projection of each grade including high school graduates. The state total by grade is the result of the summation of the projections by grade at the county level.
Several important changes have occurred regarding the enrollment data used to develop the projections. In October 2006, the collection of enrollment data was shifted from school-level aggregate obtained through the California Basic Educational Data System (CBEDS) to student-level derived from the Annual Statewide Student Identifier (SSID) Maintenance. This required that each student be assigned an identifier based on California School Information Services (CSIS) and local educational agency (LEA) coding system criteria. Therefore, aggregate enrollment data previously obtained through the CBEDS (except high school graduate) has been discontinued.
The implementation of the Annual SSID Maintenance process resulted in change to student reporting. Most students previously reported as ungraded in the aggregated K-12 enrollment data were allocated to individual grades through SSID and CSIS. This change makes 2006 graded enrollment inconsistent with graded enrollment for prior years.
Starting in October 2007, LEAs will report graduate and dropout data through CBEDS, as well as through the Annual SSID Maintenance process. The SSID submission will serve as the official source of graduate and dropout counts.
The 2007 series was produced using an expanded computer model implemented in 2006, that allowed for greater flexibility in the use and applications of grade progression ratios in the calculations of enrollments. As a result, the yearly projections by county may continue to differ from the historical. In addition, some County Offices of Education and school districts have provided updated information used in developing countywide assumptions. Actual enrollment and high school graduates may not match prior years' series because of revisions to the California Department of Education enrollment files. Enrollment projections exclude California Youth Authority and state special schools, in addition to reported ungraded students.
HIGHLIGHTS
State Enrollment
Graded K-12 enrollment in California will be relatively stable over the next ten years, with enrollment declines in the early years of the projection followed by modest enrollment growth. In 2005, K-12 enrollment showed the first decline in enrollment since 1980 with a loss of nearly 8,000 students. Although a reporting change resulted in an increase in graded enrollment in 2006, enrollment is expected to exhibit small annual declines as the high birth cohorts of the early 1990's age out of the K-12 system, returning to 2006 levels by 2016. By the end of the decade the forecast reflects a moderate annual 1 percent growth.
In recent years, California's K-12 enrollment growth level peaked in 1990 at nearly 4 percent, which was the highest rate since the 1960s. Baby boomers born in the post World War II era, flowed through California's public school system during the 1950's and 1960's reaching unmatched annual percentage and numeric change levels. These strong growth patterns reversed during the 1970's and early 1980's as the boomers turned 18 years old, but strong growth started again in the mid-1980's, as the increase in births that occurred in the mid- 1970's, entered the K-12 system.
California births peaked in the early 1990s and then generally declined until 2001 when they rose for the first time in a decade. Since 2001, births have continued to increase, with slow annual growth expected over the next ten years. Births that occurred in the peak birth years of 1990 and 1991, age out of the K-12 system by 2009.
Elementary enrollment is projected to continue declining until 2009. Beginning in 2010 and continuing through the projection, elementary enrollment is predicted to grow, rising over 200,000 by 2016 to 4,497,367.
Secondary enrollment is projected to increase slightly from 1,991,088 in 2006 to 1,997,542 in 2007, and then annually decrease through 2015, generally stabilizing after that.
As a result, total enrollment is projected to be relatively stable over the decade, showing an annual average increase of just 0.1 percent.
Over the decade high school graduates are expected to decrease by 0.3 percent. Large cohorts from the 1990 and 1991 birth peak years increase graduates in the early part of the projection followed by a gradual decline to June 2006 levels.
County Enrollment
The counties projected to have the strongest growth in total graded enrollment in the next year are Riverside, Santa Clara, Kern, Contra Costa, and Tulare, each with at least 1,000 additional students, with Riverside forecast to have more new students than the rest of the growing counties in the state combined.
Over the decade, projected county enrollments have Riverside leading the State with an increase of 205,000 additional students, followed by San Bernardino, adding 53,000 students. Other counties with large enrollment growth from 2006 levels are Kern, San Joaquin, and Fresno. Enrollment growth in these counties can be attributed to increasing county births and continuing county in-migration.
Five southern California counties—Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, San Bernardino, and Riverside—contain 56 percent of the state's 2006 total K-12 enrollment; Santa Clara, Sacramento, Alameda, Fresno, and Kern counties round out the top ten. Taken together, these ten counties account for 73 percent of the state's enrollment.
Although Los Angeles County has the largest number of students statewide, the enrollment is projected to continue to decline in the next year, by 2.3 percent. Los Angeles County enrollment should decrease by about 17 percent by 2016, caused by declining birth cohorts and expected continuing family out-migration to lower cost neighboring counties.
From 2006 to 2007, enrollment is projected to decline in 34 of the state's 58 counties, whereas by 2016 only 23 counties are projected to have declining enrollment levels.
