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California Public Postsecondary Enrollment Projections, 2006 Series*

December 2006

Acknowledgements

This report was prepared by Linda von Rotz assisted by Evaon Schnagl, under the general direction of Mary Heim, Chief, Demographic Research Unit. Bill Schooling provided technical direction and final review, with Mary Heim and John Malson also providing review.

Historical data were provided by the California Community Colleges Chancellor's Office; the Office of the Chancellor, the California State University; and the Office of the President, the University of California.

Suggested Citation

State of California, Department of Finance, California Public Postsecondary Enrollment Projections, 2006 Series, Sacramento, California, December 2006.

• California Public Postsecondary Enrollment Projections, 2006 Series (.xls, 36k)

Note

“Higher education enrollments are affected by economic conditions, political and administrative decision, the status value of a degree, and the intrinsic value of higher education, the cost of an education, etc.  Some of these factors are impossible to quantify; most defy anticipation.”

— National Center for Education Statistics (NCES).

Users of this report must be cautious about enrollment projections in the short term since factors other than population may influence future enrollment.

These projections have been produced using guidelines established in the 2004 HIGHER EDUCATION COMPACT, the Agreement between Governor Schwarzenegger, the University of California, and the California State University, 2005-06 through 2010-11, as well as analyses of demographic and higher education enrollment trends.

Highlights

In fall 2005 California total public postsecondary enrollment reached 2,207,473, a year-to-year change of 0.5 percent, or about 10,000 additional students. This reverses two consecutive years of decline after seven years of continuous growth.  It is expected that growth will continue through the projection period. California Community Colleges (CCC) registered about three out of four public postsecondary students, California State University (CSU) enrolled one in six, and University of California (UC) enrolled one in eleven.  Graduate students accounted for 5 percent of the total.

Early fall 2006 estimates by system officials indicate that enrollment in all three segments of public higher education are continuing to experience change from historical trends.  The 2004 Compact is operational through 2010-11, but rollbacks in fees that are expected to start in 2007 should increase enrollment, particularily for the community colleges.  Graduate enrollments at CSU are predicted to continue declining until 2007, then stabilize, while UC graduate students are expected to decline through 2006, then flatten out through the remainder of the forecast period.
CSU expects about 72,000 graduate students in 2006 (down 1.9 percent); and UC expects about 36,000 graduate students (down 1.3 percent).  In 2006 undergraduate enrollment for the UC system rebounds (163,553, increasing 2.9 percent), with CSU continuing to show a strong recovery (343,103, up 3.5 percent) from drops in enrollment experienced by both segments in 2004.  The CCC reports a stronger increase in enrollment of 2 percent to 1,638,844 than was seen a year ago when the segment stabilized after several years of declining headcounts.  A steady enrollment growth is expected to continue through the decade as larger numbers of students leave the K12 system and enter higher education institutions.

The Department of Finance projects enrollment to increase by over 22 percent, or 503,750 students, between 2005 and 2015.

California Community Colleges:Enrollment increased by less than 1000 students, reaching 1,606,855 for fall 2005, reversing a two year decline, from the 2002 peak enrollment of 1,748,361 students.  Participation rates continued to fall slightly for all age groups, with the under 20 year old, showing a positive increase in 2005.  Fall 2006 enrollment is projected to increase by 2 percent.  By 2015, enrollment is projected to grow 25 percent, or about 394,000 students, from the 2005 level to 2,000,928.

California State University:2004 enrollment declined for the first time since 1994, but showed a strong rebound in 2005 of nearly 2 percent.  Undergraduate students showed strong growth of nearly 4 percent to 331,563 while graduate students fell by nearly 5 percent to 73,719.  Graduate enrollment has returned to the levels of the mid-late 1990's and is expected to show a small decline before stabilizing through the compact period.  In 2005, enrollment reached 405,282; returning to a growth pattern that started in 1994, with CSU enrollment expected to grow by 2.5 percent in fall 2006.  By 2015 enrollment is projected to grow by about 19 percent to 482,367 students, with undergraduates accounting for about seven out of ten additional students.

University of California (General Campus):Fall 2005 enrollment increased by only 0.6 percent to 195,336, with undergraduates virtually unchanged at 158,933, and graduates increasing by 1.5 percent to 36,403.  Preliminary UC analysis of applicant data indicates overall UC enrollment for fall 2006 will increase by 2.1 percent with undergraduates expected to increase by nearly 3 percent to 163,553 students.  Total enrollment is projected to grow by 32,592 students, or nearly 17 percent over the next ten years, with undergraduate enrollment accounting for over nine out of ten additional students.

Projections are prepared each year by the Demographic Research Unit. For additional information, contact:

California Department of Finance
Demographic Research Unit
915 L Street, 8th Floor
Sacramento, California 95814
(916) 323–4086

California public postsecondary enrollment includes students in California Community Colleges, California State University system, and University of California, General Campus only.