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E-3 California County Race / Ethnic Population Estimates and Components of Change
by Year, July 1, 2000–2004

March 2006

OFFICIAL STATE ESTIMATES

Acknowledgments

Mary Heim produced the race/ethnic estimates. Melanie Martindale reviewed the estimates and methodology and updated the report text. William Schooling also contributed expert consultation on the methodology. Linda Gage produced the total population estimates upon which these are based. Evaon Schnagl validated input formulas and data. The vital statistics were provided by the Department of Health Services, Office of Health Information and Research (http://www.dhs.ca.gov/hisp/chs/).

Suggested Citation

State of California, Department of Finance, California County Race/Ethnic Population Estimates and Components of Change by Year, July 1, 2000–2004. Sacramento, California, March 2006.

• E-3 California County Race / Ethnic Population Estimates and Components of Change
  by Year, July 1, 2000–2004 (.xls, 976k)

Contents

This report presents provisional state and county race/ethnic estimates for July 1, 2000 through July 1, 2004; and components of population change by year between fiscal years 2000-2004. The estimates are classified into seven race/ethnic groups. These are Hispanics (of any race) and non-Hispanic Whites, Blacks, American Indians, Asians, Multirace persons and Pacific Islanders. The definitions of these groups are found in federal Office of Management & Budget Directive 15 (1997 rev).

Highlights

From 2000 to 2004, the Hispanic and Asian populations increased their shares of the state's population (by 2.3 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively), while the shares of Whites and Blacks declined (down 2.5 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively). The shares of the state's other three race/ethnic groups increased very slightly (American Indians, up 0.04 percent; Pacific Islanders, up 0.03 percent; and Multirace persons, up 0.13 percent) over the four-year period. Although still the largest race/ethnic group, Whites were, by 2004, 44.6 percent of the population, down from 47.2 percent in 2000. In the same period Hispanics grew to almost 35 percent of the total. Asians grew from 11 percent to 11.6 percent of the total, and Blacks dropped to 6 percent from 6.5 percent. Multirace persons held the next largest share, 2 percent, with the two smallest groups, American Indians and Pacific Islanders, holding 0.58 percent and 0.35 percent shares, respectively. These rates of growth and decline resulted from very different patterns in the components of change (births, deaths and migration) by race/ethnicity.

White population growth has come mainly from net migration, and it was diminished in 2000-2003, then actually offset in 2004, by natural decrease of population (that is, excess of deaths over births). This resulted in an estimated White population drop in the last year of the period. The Black population also experienced population loss during most years of the period, when net outmigration exceeded natural increase of population. However, Blacks' natural increase of population has itself become smaller with each passing year, while the group's net outmigration has been growing.

Somewhat like Blacks, the Multirace population has been experiencing annual small natural increases of population, growing despite net outmigration over the entire period.

All other race/ethnic groups have experienced net inmigration during these years. For Asians and Pacific Islanders, net migration has been a greater source of growth than their natural increase of population, while for American Indians, their net migration has offset natural decrease of population in all years, to yield slow but steady growth. Finally, Hispanics' strong growth results primarily from large and growing natural increase of population (excess of births over deaths). Today about 40 percent of Hispanic population growth comes from net migration. Still, Hispanics are the state's fastest-growing race/ethnic group and its growth from net migration is twice that of the growth from this source for any other race/ethnic group. In fact, three fourths of the population growth of California by 2004 was Hispanic. It is projected in a separate report that Hispanics will become the largest race/ethnic group in the state by 2011.

The relative proportions of the race/ethnic groups vary widely across the Counties, with some of the groups heavily represented in certain county corridors or clusters.

Those with the highest percentages of Whites (90 percent or more) are Sierra (91 percent), Nevada (90.8 percent) and Plumas (90 percent) Counties. Eleven other counties, most in the rather sparsely settled northern and eastern part of the state, are at least 81 percent White. In contrast, Imperial County at the state's southeastern tip had the smallest percent White, 19.4 percent, in 2004. Although the state itself is less than 50 percent White, this is true for only about one third (34.5 percent) of the state's 58 counties. These racially and ethnically diverse counties also are some of the largest counties, heavily weighting the state's race/ethnic composition.

The highest concentration of Blacks is found in Solano and Alameda Counties, which are 13.2 and 13.1 percent Black, respectively. Several of the larger counties' Black percentages fall in the 4-7 percent range, but the majority of California counties' populations have very small Black percentages. Slightly over a third of counties (34.5 percent), mostly in the northern and eastern part of the state, are less than one percent Black.

Asians were most substantially represented in San Francisco—over 31 percent of the county's population in 2004 was in this race/ethnic group. Three nearby counties—Alameda, San Mateo and Santa Clara—were about one quarter Asian, while six additional counties in the same west central part of the state were 10 to 15 percent Asian. In the southern part of the state, only Los Angeles (12.7 percent) and Orange (15.2 percent) Counties had notable percentages of Asians.

As the second largest race/ethnic group in the state, Hispanics are well represented in most counties. The smallest percent Hispanic, 3.6 percent, is found in Trinity but that is a real anomaly. Only 13 other counties, mostly in the eastern and northern parts of the state, are 5-10 percent Hispanic. The group is already almost 74 percent of the population in Imperial County; is the majority race/ethnic group in four other counties (Tulare, Monterey, Merced and San Benito) and is a larger percent of the population than Whites (ranging from 42 to 48 percent ) in yet another five (Colusa, Los Angeles, Fresno, Kings, and San Bernardino).

Methodology

A crude vital statistics rates method was used to develop the July series race/ethnic estimates. Calendar year births (by race of child, not mother); deaths by race/ethnicity; Census 2000 benchmarks; and independent July series total population estimates controls for the state and counties are the variables used in the method.

Data Considerations

Sources: The benchmark (or starting point) for these estimates is the Census Bureau's Modified Race (MR) file from Census 2000. The vital statistics are provided by the California Department of Health Services. Data in consistent race/ethnic categories are available for all years in the series.

Accuracy: Because the definitions of race/ethnic categories and how people interpret them for self-identification purposes have changed over time, it is currently not possible to evaluate the accuracy of the method used to produce the estimates in this report. At present, by law the US Office of Management & Budget (OMB) defines race and ethnic groups for purposes of statistical classification by federal agencies, including the US Census Bureau. The OMB last updated these Directive 15 definitions in 1997 for use in Census 2000 and subsequent years. If alternate data sources, consistent with these 2000 Census race/ethnic definitions, become available, the method used in this report will be examined for possible enhancement.