Demographic Outlook

The first results from Census 2000, released in late December, estimated California’s population at 33,871,648 as of April 1, 2000. The accuracy of this figure has not yet been fully evaluated by the U.S. Census Bureau. In particular, it is not adjusted for the undercount that occurred in the 2000 census. This demographic outlook provides a population overview, additional detail on future census results, and a discussion of the use of adjusted population data in the Governor’s Budget.

Using the State Demographer’s adjusted estimate, at nearly 35 million people as of mid-2000, California’s population is the largest and most diverse in the nation. This estimate is higher than the preliminary 2000 census estimate, because it adjusts the population to reflect the known undercount of 838,000 persons in the 1990 census. (See "The Budget Uses Adjusted Census Data" below.) The state has become a plurality with no majority racial or ethnic group, since the white population is now less than half of the population (see Figure DEM-1).

• The July 1, 2000, adjusted estimate of the population is 34,808,000. It is forecast to be 35,410,000 in 2001 and about 36 million in 2002. This reflects a short-term annual growth rate of 1.7 percent.
• Through the next five years, the state will grow an average of over 580,000 people each year and become increasingly diverse. The primary factor in the state’s growth in the next decade will be natural increase (more babies being born than people dying).
• By July 2005, the state will add nearly 3 million people to reach 37,720,000, a five-year growth rate of 8.4 percent. This is greater than the 7.3 percent overall population growth since 1995.
• Population growth rates vary significantly by age group. The state’s total population growth of 8.4 percent contrasts with 6.0 percent growth in the under-18 group and 9.3 percent growth in both the working age and older populations (see Figure DEM-2). The population in the working ages will increase nearly 2 million.
• In fall 1999, K-12 public school enrollment reached nearly 5.9 million. Starting in 2000 and continuing through the decade, school enrollment growth will be slower than that of the general population, because the number of births in the state declined in the 1990s.

California invested $24.7 million to assist the United States Census Bureau in accurately counting the state’s population in the national decennial census of April 1, 2000. The State conducted an extensive census outreach program and was successful in encouraging Californians to participate in the census. Seventy percent of California households mailed in their 2000 census form, compared to 65 percent in the 1990 census. The response to the census was improved, but the final results and quality of the census are still unknown.

Census data are released in stages with the most basic data released first. The basic population counts from the 2000 census were delivered to President Clinton as required by law in late December 2000. These counts, used to reapportion Congress, consisted only of each state’s total enumerated population—one number for each state. The state totals, in accordance with a U.S. Supreme Court decision, were not adjusted for any census undercount.

The next data from census 2000 will be delivered to the governor of each state during March 2001. Public Law 94-171, enacted by Congress in 1975, requires the tabulation of small-area census population totals for legislative redistricting. If the director of the U.S. Census Bureau determines that there were significant undercounts or overcounts in the 2000 census and the census can be improved by statistical adjustment, the Bureau will release two sets of data—one based on the actual enumeration and one corrected for the measured undercount. The data will include counts of the total and under-18 population tabulated by 63 race categories and cross-tabulated by "Hispanic or Latino" ethnicity.

Starting in summer 2001, data will be released for each state that include the census "short form" responses. The information includes age, gender, race, Hispanic or Latino origin, household relationship, and whether the residence is owned or rented.

Beginning in August 2002, socioeconomic information collected on the census "long form" from a sample of the population will be released state-by-state. Sample questions include marital status, school enrollment, educational attainment, language spoken, nativity, citizenship, place of residence five years ago, disability status, presence of grandchildren, military duty, employment status, transportation, income, type of housing, age of housing, plumbing and kitchen facilities, and selected living expenses.

To best budget resources for all residents of California, the 2001-02 Governor’s Budget is based on population data that are adjusted for the 1990 census undercount. The previous census in 1990 missed four million people, 1.6 percent of the nation’s population. Of all the states, California had the largest population undercount. Over 800,000, or 2.7 percent, of the state’s population were not counted. Because adjusted 2000 census data are not yet available, the estimates and projections used in the Budget have been revised based on the known undercount in the 1990 census data. By basing the Budget on adjusted population, the Administration believes changes due to the transition to 2000 census data in the May Revision will be minimized.

The effect on the population data is to raise the state’s population for each year since 1990. The effect on calculations of annual growth and percentage of population change is minimal, because the adjustment is consistently applied throughout the population data series and not introduced in a single year.

No census 2000 data were included in the population estimates that were prepared in November 2000 for inclusion in the Budget. Revisions will be necessary when the final data become available in March 2001.