California Public K-12 Graded Enrollment and High School Graduate Projections by County — 2017 Series

December 2017

Highlights

State Enrollment    

California experienced a slight increase (1,850 students) in total K-12 Public Enrollment in the 2016-17 school year, enrolling approximately 6,221,000 students. Over the next ten years, a decline of 181,000 in total enrollment is projected, if current trends in fertility and migration hold, resulting in total enrollment of 6,040,000 by 2026-27.

County Enrollment

The largest increase in county enrollment is expected in Kern County, which will grow by 8,600 students by 2026-27. The biggest decline in enrollment is expected in Los Angeles County which will fall by 119,000 students by the end of the projection. Overall, 30 counties will have increased public K-12 enrollment by 2026-27.

High School Graduates

Graduates are expected to remain flat in the short term before increasing to a peak of 451,700 in 2023-24. The largest increase in graduates is expected in Kern County, which will add 1,900 graduates by end of the projection. Overall 31 counties will see an increase in the number of high school graduates by 2026-27.

Data Sources

Enrollment data used to produce this report were obtained from the California Department of Education. Actual births were obtained from the California Department of Public Health while projected births were produced by the Demographic Research Unit.

Methodology

Enrollment projections are developed using a grade progression ratio (GPR), cohort-survival, projection model to project enrollment in kindergarten through twelfth grade and high school graduates. The GPR is the result of dividing the enrollment in one grade level by the enrollment in one lower grade from the prior year. The GPR represents the proportion of students expected to progress from one grade to the next. The most likely progression model is chosen based upon analysis of historical trends and knowledge of migration trends and demographic characteristics of each county. Entering cohorts of kindergartners and first graders are projected using actual and projected births. The best fitting progression ratios are chosen independently for the projection of each grade including high school graduates. The state total by grade is the result of the summation of the projections by grade at the county level.

User Notes

Actual enrollment and high school graduates may not match prior years' series due to revisions to the California Department of Education enrollment files. Enrollment projections exclude California Education Authority, state special schools and ungraded students.

Recent changes to kindergarten age of admission impact elementary enrollment patterns making the 2017 projections inconsistent with projections series produced prior to the 2010 series. Kindergarten enrollment includes students enrolled in transitional kindergarten.

Suspension of the California High School Exit Exam has led to increases in high school graduates from the previous series.

Suggested Citation

State of California, Department of Finance, California Public K-12 Graded Enrollment and High School Graduate Projections by County, 2017 Series. Sacramento, California, December 2017.


 

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